中文摘要
我们利用断点回归设计考察美国青少年驾驶对死亡率与风险行为的影响。我们估计, 在最低合法驾驶年龄断点处, 机动车事故死亡上升 40%, 这意味着每多行驶一英里的死亡风险比成年驾驶员面临的风险高 6 至 9 倍。我们还发现, 在断点处女性死于药物过量和一氧化碳中毒的人数显著增加 80%, 这由自杀和意外死亡两方面的变化所致。我们的分析表明, 驾驶监管可成为改善青少年健康的有效工具。
Abstract
We investigate the effect of teenage driving on mortality and risky behaviors in the United States using a regression discontinuity design. We estimate that motor vehicle fatalities rise by 40% at the minimum legal driving age cutoff, implying a mortality risk per additional mile driven 6-9 times higher than the risk faced by adult drivers. We also find a stark 80% increase in female deaths from drug overdoses and carbon monoxide poisoning at the cutoff, caused by changes in both suicides and accidental deaths. Our analysis suggests driving regulations could be an effective tool to improve teenage health.