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前工业化与早期工业化时期的流行病、不平等与贫困

Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times
Journal of Economic Literature · 2022 · Guido Alfani

中文摘要

近期研究探讨了重大历史流行病的分配后果, 而 COVID-19 引发的当前危机促使我们回顾历史, 以获得关于大流行病如何影响收入、财富与健康不平等的洞见。十四世纪的黑死病通常被认为显著降低了经济不平等, 因而受到的关注最多。然而, 若考虑其他流行病, 图景便复杂得多。本文涵盖前工业化时期最严重的流行病, 从 540–541 年的查士丁尼瘟疫到十七世纪欧洲最后几次大瘟疫, 以及十九世纪的霍乱浪潮。文章表明, 致命流行病的分配后果不仅取决于死亡率, 还受到一系列因素的调节, 其中最主要的是每次危机爆发时既有的制度框架。随后文章探讨历史上的流行病如何影响贫困, 指出高致命性流行病可能通过两种截然不同的机制降低贫困的发生率: 向穷人再分配, 或消灭穷人。最后, 文章回顾了致命流行病逐渐减弱及其在时间上日益稀疏与预期寿命改善之间的历史联系, 并讨论了流行病如何影响健康与生活水平的不平等。(JEL D31, I12, I14, I30, N30, J11, J31)

Abstract

Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by COVID-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from the Plague of Justinian of 540–41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution toward the poor or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards. (JEL D31, I12, I14, I30, N30, J11, J31)
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