Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2022 · Melissa Schettini Kearney、Phillip B. Levine、Luke W. Pardue
中文摘要
本文记录了 2007 年至 2020 年间美国出生率急剧下降的一系列事实,并探讨了可能的解释。出生率的总体下降反映了多个女性群体出生率的下降,包括青少年、西班牙裔女性和受过大学教育的白人女性。大衰退是这一时期前段出生率下降的原因之一,但除此之外,我们无法识别出自 2007 年以来发生了变化、并能解释此后大部分下降的任何其他经济、政策或社会因素。从机械分解的角度看,出生率的下降可归因于正经历育龄阶段的近期各出生队列(cohort)女性生育模式的变化。我们推测,较晚近队列女性“优先事项的转变”——反映了对生育子女的偏好、人生期望以及育儿规范的变化——可能是原因所在。文末简要讨论了出生率下降的社会后果以及美国可能采取的应对措施。
Abstract
This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.