文化、风险承担与公共领导力：来自中国村庄的证据
Culture, risk-taking, and public leadership: Evidence from Chinese villages
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Justin Jihao Hong", "affiliation": ["Hong Kong University of Science and Technology", "University of Hong Kong"]}]
中文摘要
许多社会都保留着与风险承担相关的传统文化。本文利用中国农村广泛存在的关于规避风险的生肖信念，揭示传统风险承担文化对公共领导与治理的实质性影响；这种生肖信念遵循与个人出生年份相关的外生 12 年周期。基于一个具有代表性的村庄面板数据，我发现处于规避风险生肖年份的村主任更遵循治理程序，并提升村民对回应性的感知。我还观察到一致的支出变化：公共品支出上升，同时易被滥用的行政支出出现相近幅度的下降。然而，受处理的村主任推动政策创新的可能性也更低。这些结果最容易由村主任风险承担倾向的转变来解释，而这一转变可能在问责与公共创业之间形成潜在权衡。
Abstract
Many societies preserve traditional culture tied to risk-taking. This paper shows the substantial impact of traditional risk-taking culture on public leadership and governance, leveraging widely-held zodiac beliefs about risk-avoidance in rural China, which follow an exogenous 12-year cycle tied to a person's birth year. Using a representative village panel, I find that village heads in their risk-avoidant zodiac years follow governance processes more and enhance villagers' perception about responsiveness. I also observe consistent expenditure changes, with higher public good spending and a comparable decline in administration spending that is prone to misuse. However, treated leaders are also less likely to promote policy innovation. These results can be most easily reconciled with a shift in village heads' risk-taking, which may yield a potential trade-off between accountability and public entrepreneurship.