中文摘要
本文发展了一个社会决定型抱负的理论,并研究这些抱负与增长和不平等之间的互动。这种互动是双向的:整个经济层面的结果决定个体抱负,而个体抱负又决定投资激励和社会结果。因此,抱负、收入以及收入的分布是共同演化的。当资本存量位于某个紧集内时,稳态分布必然呈现不平等,且通常聚集在局部极点附近。当持续增长成为可能时,初始历史便很重要。其结果要么是收敛到一个平等的分布(伴随增长),要么是各群体之间存在长期的相对分化,同时群体内部出现收敛。驱动这些结果的一个核心特征是:适度高于个体当前生活水平的抱负倾向于鼓励投资,而更高的抱负则可能导致挫败。
Abstract
This paper develops a theory of socially determined aspirations, and the interaction of those aspirations with growth and inequality.The interaction is bidirectional: economy-wide outcomes determine individual aspirations, which in turn determine investment incentives and social outcomes.Thus aspirations, income and the distribution of income evolve jointly.When capital stocks lie in some compact set, steady states distributions must exhibit inequality and are typically clustered around local poles.When sustained growth is possible, initial histories matter.Either there is convergence to an equal distribution (with growth) or there is perennial relative divergence across clusters, with withincluster convergence.A central feature that drives these results is that aspirations that are moderately above an individual's current standard of living tend to encourage investment, while still higher aspirations may lead to frustration.