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子女出生时的现金转移减少父亲和子女的犯罪活动

Cash transfer at birth reduces criminal activity of fathers and children
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Sakshi Bhardwaj

中文摘要

本文考察低收入家庭在子女出生后立即获得额外收入对其涉入刑事司法系统的影响。本文采用断点回归设计,利用一项允许在年末之前出生的子女在该纳税年度被申报为受抚养人的政策,从而使家庭在初为父母的第一年获得额外现金。基于关联的行政数据,本文发现,这笔额外收入会立即降低初次成为父亲者受到刑事指控和被监禁的可能性,且这一效应对收入相关犯罪尤为明显。从长期来看,它还会减少其子女涉入少年司法系统的情况。

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of additional income provided to low-income families immediately after childbirth on criminal justice involvement. Using a regression discontinuity design, I exploit a policy that allows children born before year-end to be claimed as dependents for that tax year, thereby providing additional cash during the first year of parenthood. Using linked administrative data, I find that this extra income immediately reduces the likelihood of criminal charges and incarceration among first-time fathers, particularly for income-related offenses. In the long run, it also reduces juvenile justice involvement among their children.
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