Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Min Sun Park、SOLOMON WILLIAM POLACHEK
中文摘要
我们使用 1995 至 2024 年的 CPS ASEC 数据以及单元格层面的交错双重差分设计,估计州带薪家庭假 (PFL) 的劳动力市场效应。PFL 使年轻女性的劳动参与率提高 2.25 个百分点。这一提升集中于有 5 岁以下亲生子女的女性,其参与率上升 3.76 个百分点。在全部年轻女性中,无条件周工时增加 0.54 小时。有 5 岁以下子女的年轻父亲的参与率提高 1.59 个百分点。年轻女性劳动参与率的结果在安慰剂置换检验、逐一剔除任一处理州,以及与前期平行趋势相一致的政策前平衡性检验下均保持稳健。
Abstract
ABSTRACT We estimate the labor market effects of state paid family leave (PFL) using CPS ASEC data from 1995 through 2024 and a cell‐level staggered difference‐in‐differences design. PFL raises young women's labor force participation by 2.25 percentage points. The gain is concentrated among women with an own child under age 5, for whom participation rises by 3.76 percentage points. Among young women overall, unconditional weekly hours rise by 0.54 h. Young fathers of children under age 5 show a 1.59 percentage point participation gain. The young women's participation result is robust to a placebo permutation test, to leaving out any single treated state, and to a pre‐policy balance check consistent with parallel pre‐trends.