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宽恕我们的罪——来自肯尼亚内罗毕的欠费减免与账单支付实验证据

Forgive Us Our Sins—Experimental Evidence on Arrears Forgiveness and Bill Payment From Nairobi, Kenya
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · David E. Fuente、Richard Mbithi Mulwa、Mbutu Mwaura、Josiah W Gitu、Joseph Cook

中文摘要

能源和供水公用事业公司需要财务资源来维护现有基础设施、扩大产能以满足不断增长的需求、满足环境法规要求,并投资于气候韧性。为普及供水与环境卫生服务以及全球向清洁能源未来转型提供融资的创新方式,已受到广泛关注。本文考察公用事业财务的基础——客户账单支付。我们与内罗毕市供水与污水处理公司合作,检验无条件欠费减免项目对客户账单支付行为的影响。据我们所知,这是首个以实验方式检验欠费管理项目影响的研究。我们发现,向客户提供无条件欠费减免并不能有效改善客户的账单支付,实际上在短期内反而使账单支付状况恶化。与未处理家庭相比,我们处理组中的客户更不可能对其账单进行支付,更不可能按时全额支付账单,并且在干预后的 6 个月内积累了更多欠费。我们的结果表明,一次性债务赦免可能在无意中降低缴费合规性,公用事业公司应考虑有条件的或其他替代性的援助措施。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Energy and water utilities need financial resources to maintain existing infrastructure, increase capacity to meet growing demand, meet environmental regulations, and invest in climate resilience. Considerable attention has been paid to innovative means of financing the transition to universal access to water and sanitation services and the global transition to a clean energy future. This paper examines the foundation of utility finance—customer bill payment. We partner with Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company to test the impact of an unconditional arrears forgiveness program on customer bill payment behavior. To our knowledge, this is the first study to experimentally test the impact of an arrears management program. We find that providing customers unconditional arrears forgiveness was not effective at improving customer bill payment and, in fact, made bill payment worse in the short run. Customers in our treatment group were less likely to make a payment towards their bill, less likely to pay their full bill on time, and accumulated more arrears over the 6 months following our intervention than untreated households. Our results suggest that one‐off debt amnesty may inadvertently reduce compliance, and that utilities should consider conditional or alternative assistance measures.
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