Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Ruixue Jia、Hongbin Li、Yu Qin、Qiuyi Wang、Jing Wu
Abstract
Each year, millions of college applicants worldwide take standardized tests, with research consistently linking test performance to various life outcomes, notably career success. This study investigates the predictive power of subject test scores in China's National College Entrance Exam (NCEE) on future income outcomes, analyzing administrative data for around 190,000 individuals born between 1980 and 1985. While Chinese, Math, and English all positively correlate with future income, English emerges as the most influential predictor. This influence remains consistent across different career stages, underscoring the enduring significance of English proficiency. Our results demonstrate the value of English skills over the past few decades in China, the largest developing country that was rapidly integrated into the global economy, and have implications for education policies beyond China.