英语的重要性：中国分科目考试成绩与未来收入
English's significance: Exam performance by subject and future income in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Ruixue Jia", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Hongbin Li", "affiliation": ["Instrumentation Technology and Economy Institute"]}, {"name": "Yu Qin", "affiliation": ["National University of Singapore"]}, {"name": "Qiuyi Wang", "affiliation": ["Sichuan University"]}, {"name": "Jing Wu", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}]
中文摘要
每年，全球数以百万计的大学申请者参加标准化考试，已有研究一致表明，考试成绩与多种人生结果密切相关，尤其是职业成功。本研究考察中国普通高等学校招生全国统一考试（高考）各科目成绩对未来收入的预测能力，使用了约19万名1980—1985年间出生个体的行政数据进行分析。语文、数学和英语成绩均与未来收入正相关，其中英语是最具影响力的预测指标。这一影响在不同职业阶段保持一致，凸显了英语能力持久的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，在过去几十年里，英语技能在中国——这个快速融入全球经济的最大发展中国家——具有重要价值，并对中国以外的教育政策具有启示意义。
Abstract
Each year, millions of college applicants worldwide take standardized tests, with research consistently linking test performance to various life outcomes, notably career success. This study investigates the predictive power of subject test scores in China's National College Entrance Exam (NCEE) on future income outcomes, analyzing administrative data for around 190,000 individuals born between 1980 and 1985. While Chinese, Math, and English all positively correlate with future income, English emerges as the most influential predictor. This influence remains consistent across different career stages, underscoring the enduring significance of English proficiency. Our results demonstrate the value of English skills over the past few decades in China, the largest developing country that was rapidly integrated into the global economy, and have implications for education policies beyond China.