Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Susan M. Parker
中文摘要
在过去十年中,枪支政策最重大的变化之一是无许可隐蔽携枪法的广泛采用。自 2015 年以来,已有 20 多个州通过了无许可携枪法。无许可携枪法允许枪支拥有者在公共场合隐蔽携带手枪,而无需事先取得许可证并接受背景审查。本文使用堆叠事件研究估计量估计无许可携枪法对犯罪的因果影响。我发现,在该法通过后的 12 个月内,暴力犯罪增加 7%,且增长始于法案通过后不久,即在该法正式生效前数月便已出现。我没有发现财产犯罪中存在抵消性威慑效应的证据。暴力犯罪的上升由涉及枪支的严重袭击增加 12% 所驱动。伴随这些效应的是警方对武器法违法行为的执法下降 22%,以及枪支被盗报案的小幅增加。
Abstract
ABSTRACT In the last decade, one of the most substantial changes to firearm policy is the widespread adoption of permitless concealed carry laws. Since 2015, more than 20 states have adopted a permitless carry law. Permitless carry laws allow firearm owners to carry a concealed handgun in public without first obtaining a license and undergoing a background check. This article estimates the causal impact of permitless carry laws on crime using stacked event study estimators. I find that violent crime increases by 7% in the 12 months following the law's adoption, with increases beginning shortly after passage, or several months before the law formally takes effect. I find no evidence of offsetting deterrence in property crime. The rise in violence is driven by a 12% increase in aggravated assaults involving firearms. These effects are accompanied by a 22% decline in police enforcement of weapons law violations and modest increases in reports of stolen firearms.