The Fertility Effects of Reducing Implicit Childcare Subsidies: The Case of School Schedules
中文摘要
尽管政府努力通过家庭支持政策提高生育率,高收入和中等收入国家的出生率仍在持续下降。然而,一些出于其他目的而设计的政策可能发挥着隐性育儿补贴的功能。本文利用西班牙一项大规模改革考察了减少此类支持对生育的影响,该改革缩短了小学在校时间,从全天制转为仅上午上课。利用1981年至2016年的省级数据和合成双重差分识别策略,我发现该改革使总和生育率每名妇女降低0.12个子女,并使母亲初育年龄推迟约4个月。在改革前女性劳动力市场融入程度较弱的省份,初育推迟幅度显著更大,尽管生育率下降幅度在各劳动力市场环境下相近。这些发现表明,取消一项隐性育儿补贴提高了生育成本,而生育时点对当地劳动力市场状况尤为敏感。
Abstract
ABSTRACT Despite governments’ efforts to raise fertility through family‐support policies, birth rates continue to decline in high‐ and middle‐income countries. Some policies designed for other purposes, however, may function as implicit childcare subsidies. This article examines the impact of reducing such support on fertility by exploiting a large‐scale reform in Spain that shortened the elementary school day, shifting from full‐day to morning‐only sessions. Using provincial‐level data from 1981 to 2016 and a synthetic difference‐in‐differences identification strategy, I find that the reform reduced the total fertility rate by 0.12 children per woman and delayed maternal age at first birth by approximately 4 months. The delay is significantly larger in provinces with weaker pre‐reform female labor market integration, although fertility declines are similar across labor market contexts. These findings suggest that removing an implicit childcare subsidy increased the cost of childbearing, with fertility timing particularly sensitive to local labor market conditions.