Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Klaus Desmet A、Dávid Krisztián Nagy、Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg
中文摘要
本文研究人力资本如何塑造发展的经济地理。我们提出一个模型,其中人力资本获取成本在空间上存在差异,且人力资本水平较高的地区会在人力资本增进型技术上投入更多。各地区通过有成本的移民与贸易相互联系。利用当地收入与学校教育数据,我们在全球1°×1°分辨率上对模型进行量化。在两个世纪的时间跨度内,模型总体上预测发展的空间分布具有持续性。按比例降低撒哈拉以南非洲的教育成本会改善当地结果,但降低全球福利;而同样的政策在拉丁美洲则会提高全球福利。使撒哈拉以南非洲内部教育成本均等化的另一种政策会产生更差的结果,因为人口会向该地区内生产率较低的地区转移。这些结果由估计所得的教育成本与当地基础条件之间的负相关关系,以及外部性导致的空间无效率所驱动。
Abstract
This paper studies how human capital shapes the economic geography of development. We propose a model in which human capital acquisition costs vary across space, and regions with higher human capital invest more in human-capital-augmenting technology. Locations are interconnected through costly migration and trade. Using data on local income and schooling, we quantify the model at a 1 ∘ × 1 ∘ resolution globally. Over two centuries, the model mostly predicts persistence in the spatial distribution of development. Proportionally lowering education costs in sub-Saharan Africa raises local outcomes but lowers global welfare, while the same policy in Latin America improves global welfare. An alternative policy that equalizes educational costs across sub-Saharan Africa generates worse outcomes, as population shifts within the region towards less productive areas. These results are driven by the estimated negative correlation between education costs and local fundamentals, as well as spatial inefficiencies due to externalities.