暴力溢出效应的持续性与教育轨迹
Persistence of the spillover effects of violence and educational trajectories
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "María Padilla-Romo", "affiliation": ["University of Tennessee at Knoxville"]}, {"name": "Cecilia Peluffo", "affiliation": ["University of Florida"]}]
中文摘要
本文提供证据，考察接收学校中那些曾暴露于暴力、随后迁入非暴力地区的同伴如何影响学生的教育轨迹。为得到估计结果，我们利用墨西哥禁毒战争背景下不同市镇地方暴力程度的差异，并将其与学生教育轨迹的行政记录相链接。我们发现，小学阶段的同伴暴力暴露对非暴力地区的学生造成持续的负面影响。拥有小学阶段曾暴露于暴力的同伴，会损害学生在高中入学考试中的学业表现及其年级晋升。每有100名此前暴露于地方暴力并迁入墨西哥城都会区的学生，安全市镇中约有17名原有学生会被分配到排名较低、较不受偏好的学校。
Abstract
This paper provides evidence on how having violence-exposed peers who migrated to nonviolent areas affects students’ educational trajectories in receiving schools. To recover our estimates, we exploit the variation in local violence across different municipalities in the context of Mexico’s war on drugs and linked administrative records on students’ educational trajectories. We find that peer exposure to violence in elementary school imposes persistent negative effects on students in nonviolent areas. Having elementary school violence-exposed peers has detrimental effects on students’ academic performance in a high school admission exam and grade progression. For every 100 students previously exposed to local violence who migrated to Mexico City’s metro area, approximately 17 incumbent students in safe municipalities are placed in lower-ranked and less-preferred schools.