On the spatial allocation of college seats: Human capital production and the distribution of skilled labor
中文摘要
大学招生名额在空间上如何配置，在总体人力资本生产的效率与各地区间大学机会的均等之间形成了一种权衡。由于上大学同时将学生分配到特定地点，录取政策还会通过大学毕业后的人口迁移进一步塑造技能劳动力的空间分布。本文研究中国的分省大学招生配额制度。结合全国行政数据与调查数据，我估计了一个在空间配额约束下的大学选择与迁移决策的动态模型。我发现，各省大学申请者在大学前人力资本方面存在显著差距，而这些差异在分配的名额中仅得到部分反映。纯粹基于择优的全国统一录取会提高总体人力资本，代价是大学机会更加不均等，以及欠发达地区人才流失大幅加剧。将现行空间配额与效率—平等前沿进行比较，意味着在均等化技能劳动力空间供给方面赋予了相当大的政策权重。
Abstract
How college seats are allocated spatially creates a tradeoff between efficiency in aggregate human capital production and equality of college opportunities across regions. Because college attendance also assigns students to locations, admission policies can further shape the spatial distribution of skilled workers through post-college migration. I study province-based college admission quotas in China. Combining national administrative data and surveys, I estimate a dynamic model of college and migration choices under spatial quota constraints. I find substantial gaps in pre-college human capital among college applicants across provinces, while these differences are only partially reflected in the allocated quotas. A purely merit-based nationwide admission increases aggregate human capital at the cost of less equal college opportunities and substantially greater brain drain in less developed regions. Comparing the current spatial quotas against the efficiency-equality frontier implies a substantial policy weight on equalizing the spatial supply of skilled labor.