The elusive link between FDI and economic growth: Sectoral heterogeneity and global value chains
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Agustín S. Bénétrix、Hayley Pallan、Ugo G. Panizza
中文摘要
本文重新评估了新兴经济体和发展中经济体中 FDI 与经济增长之间的关系。我们表明,FDI 与增长的总体关系随时间推移并不稳定,利用 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代数据所记录的互补性在近几十年中已经消失。我们构建了一个新的部门层面 FDI 数据集,揭示出 FDI 与部门增长之间存在相当大的异质性,并表明:第一产业中存在正向关联,第二产业中不存在稳健的关系,第三产业中则存在负向关联。为解释这些模式,我们考察了全球价值链 (GVCs) 的作用。在 GVC 参与度较低的国家—部门中,FDI 与增长的联系最强,而随着 GVC 一体化程度提高,这一关系减弱或消失。这些效应还取决于 GVC 一体化的类型。我们的结论是,难以捉摸的总体 FDI—增长关系反映了 FDI 嵌入全球生产网络的方式。
Abstract
This paper reassesses the relationship between FDI and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. We show that the aggregate FDI-growth relationship is not stable over time and that complementarities documented using data from the 1970s and 1980s disappear in more recent decades. Building a new sectoral FDI dataset we document substantial heterogeneity between FDI and sectoral growth and show that there is a positive association in the primary sector, no robust relationship in the secondary sector, and a negative relationship in the tertiary sector. To interpret these patterns, we examine the role of global value chains (GVCs). FDI is most strongly associated with growth in country–sectors with low GVC participation, while this relationship weakens or disappears as GVC integration increases. The effects also depend on the type of GVC integration. We conclude that the elusive aggregate FDI-growth relationship reflects how FDI is embedded in global production networks.