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贸易冲击与人力资本:来自巴西贸易自由化的证据

Trade shocks and human capital: Evidence from Brazil’s trade liberalization
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Marcos Yamada Nakaguma、Arthur Viaro

中文摘要

本文考察巴西20世纪90年代贸易自由化对童工、学校教育及人力资本积累的中期与长期效应。利用跨越近三十年的人口普查与行政数据,我们识别了贸易冲击中两个组成部分的跨地区差异,它们对成年人和儿童的劳动力市场机会产生了不同影响。我们发现,受儿童专属关税削减影响更大的地区,童工降幅更大、入学率上升更多;而受成人专属关税削减影响更大的地区则出现相反的结果。冲击的影响具有持续性,且长期影响总是更大。具体而言,我们表明,成长期与改革重合的队列,在成人专属冲击较大的地区积累的人力资本较少,而在儿童专属冲击较大的地区积累的人力资本较多。总体而言,我们的结果凸显了人力资本在放大经济冲击效应中的作用。

Abstract

This paper examines the medium- and long-run effects of Brazil’s 1990s trade liberalization on child labor, schooling, and human capital accumulation. Drawing on Census and administrative data spanning nearly three decades, we exploit cross-regional variation in two components of the trade shock that differentially affected labor market opportunities for adults and children. We find that regions more exposed to child-specific tariff reductions experienced larger declines in child labor and greater increases in school attendance; those more exposed to adult-specific tariff reductions experienced the opposite. The impacts of the shocks are persistent and always larger in the long run. Specifically, we show that cohorts whose formative years coincided with the reform accumulated less human capital where adult-specific shocks were greater, and more where child-specific shocks were larger. Overall, our results highlight the role of human capital in amplifying the effects of economic shocks.
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