大宗商品风险暴露经济体的最优货币政策与汇率框架

We show that the optimal monetary and exchange rate frameworks depend critically on the economy’s commodity exposure. We develop a flexible but tractable model economy with commodity exports and imports, in which international financial conditions depend on the commodity cycle. Stabilizing domestic prices is optimal for commodity exporters, in line with standard open-economy policy prescriptions. But when economies import commodities as production inputs, optimal policy largely ‘looks through’ their direct and indirect effects on domestic prices. In emerging economies, where financial conditions are closely related to commodity cycles, trade-offs are starker and limited credibility may make implementing optimal policy challenging.