The impact of AI and cross-border data regulation on international trade in digital services
中文摘要
数字服务国际贸易——包括移动应用贸易（如法兰克福的 Facebook、伊斯坦布尔的 Instagram）——规模庞大且增长迅速。本文分析 2015—2020 年间 28,000 个移动应用的数据，发现人工智能使应用的用户基础扩大至三倍，效应十分巨大。人工智能的得力助手是数据，包括个人数据的跨境流动。出于对隐私和国家安全的关切，政策制定者已出台数以千计相互冲突的监管规定，从保障数据自由贸易（USMCA）到数据出口禁令，不一而足。本文首次表明这些监管规定确有影响：在数据流动限制严格的国家，人工智能的巨大效应减半。
Abstract
International trade in digital services, including mobile app trade (e.g., Facebook in Frankfurt, Instagram in Istanbul), is large and rapidly growing. Analyzing 2015--2020 data on 28,000 mobile apps, we find that AI increases an app's user base threefold, a massive effect. AI's handmaiden is data, including cross-border flows of personal data. Concerned with privacy and national security, policymakers have responded with thousands of conflicting regulations, ranging from guaranteeing free trade in data (USMCA) to data export bans. We are the first to show that these regulations matter: AI's massive effect is halved in countries with strict data flow restrictions.