Inattentive Citizens: Impact of elections on political interest across 93 countries
中文摘要
民主比以往任何时候都更需要持续的警觉和公民的积极参与。因此，理解个人是否、何时以及为何关注政治，对于全球民主的健康至关重要。利用包含逾100万条观测值的全球调查数据，本文发现选举后政治关注度提高了10%。然而，这一增幅是短暂的，10天后即回落至选举前水平。不存在明显的事前趋势，选举前政治关注度保持稳定。在首轮投票即决出胜负、现任者落选以及经济政策不确定性更高的选举中，政治兴趣更高。选举后，公民更频繁地获取新闻并讨论政治。证据支持一个信息获取具有成本的模型：选举后公民对政治的关注显著提高，并会主动获取更多信息。竞选活动本身及受访者选择偏误均不太可能解释上述结果。研究发现凸显了关注成本如何限制持续的政治参与，对政治问责与民主制度具有深远影响。
Abstract
Democracy, now more than ever, requires constant vigilance and active citizen engagement. Understanding whether, when, and why individuals pay attention to politics is therefore essential to the health of democracy worldwide. Using global survey data with over one million observations, I find that attention to politics is 10% higher after elections. However, this surge is short-lived, returning to pre-election levels after 10 days. There is no discernible pre-trend, with political attention remaining stable prior to the election. Political interest is higher in elections where the first round is decisive, when an incumbent loses, and when economic policy is more uncertain. Following elections, citizens consume news and discuss politics more frequently. Evidence supports a model of costly information acquisition where citizens are significantly more attentive to politics and acquire information post-election. Campaigns and respondent selection are unlikely to account for the results. The findings underscore how the cost of attention can limit sustained political engagement, with far-reaching implications for political accountability and democratic institutions.