Inattentive Citizens: Impact of elections on political interest across 93 countries
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Laurence Go", "affiliation": ["University of Oslo"]}]
中文摘要
民主在当下比以往任何时候都更需要持续的警惕与公民的积极参与。因此，理解个体是否、何时以及为何关注政治，对全球民主的健康至关重要。利用包含超过一百万个观测值的全球调查数据，我发现选举后对政治的关注提高了 10%。然而这一激增是短暂的，10 天后便回落至选举前水平。选举前不存在可辨识的预趋势，政治关注在选举前保持稳定。在首轮即具决定性、现任者落败以及经济政策更不确定的选举中，政治兴趣更高。选举之后，公民更频繁地获取新闻并讨论政治。证据支持一个信息获取存在成本的模型：公民在选举后对政治显著更为关注，并主动获取信息。竞选活动与受访者选择不太可能解释上述结果。研究结果凸显了注意力成本如何限制持续的政治参与，并对政治问责与民主制度具有深远影响。
Abstract
Democracy, now more than ever, requires constant vigilance and active citizen engagement. Understanding whether, when, and why individuals pay attention to politics is therefore essential to the health of democracy worldwide. Using global survey data with over one million observations, I find that attention to politics is 10% higher after elections. However, this surge is short-lived, returning to pre-election levels after 10 days. There is no discernible pre-trend, with political attention remaining stable prior to the election. Political interest is higher in elections where the first round is decisive, when an incumbent loses, and when economic policy is more uncertain. Following elections, citizens consume news and discuss politics more frequently. Evidence supports a model of costly information acquisition where citizens are significantly more attentive to politics and acquire information post-election. Campaigns and respondent selection are unlikely to account for the results. The findings underscore how the cost of attention can limit sustained political engagement, with far-reaching implications for political accountability and democratic institutions.