Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Alberto Salvo、Timothy Wong
中文摘要
公民是否重视公共交通的电动化？更清洁、更安静的服务应能提高消费者福利。然而，尽管全球政府计划进行大规模投资，这一反应尚未得到检验。我们提供了关于公交电动化需求响应的三方面实证分析。首先，乘坐电动公交车下车的通勤者在噪音、废气和气味方面的满意度高于柴油公交车对照组。其次，在接触电动公交车超过一年的社区中，居民愿意为一次电动公交车行程比柴油公交车多支付0.085美元，相当于每位居民每年多支付20美元。消费者的福利收益为每辆采购的电动公交车25万美元——这是公共交通能源转型中被忽视的需求侧协同效益，其规模与碳减排收益相当。第三，电动公交线路的乘客量更高。这种效应随着公交线路电动化的时间、持续时间和强度而增加。
Abstract
Do citizens value the electrification of public transport? Cleaner and quieter services should increase consumer welfare. Yet this response has not been tested, despite the vast investment planned by governments worldwide. We provide a three-pronged empirical analysis of the demand response to bus electrification. First, commuters alighting from electric buses report higher satisfaction regarding noise, fumes, and smell compared with a diesel bus control. Second, residents of a neighborhood exposed to electric buses for over one year are willing to pay US$0.085 for an electric relative to a diesel bus ride, which amounts to US$20 per resident per year. Consumer welfare gains are US$250,000 per electric bus procured—a neglected demand-side cobenefit in public transit’s energy transition that is similar in size to the carbon savings. Third, ridership is higher on electrified bus lines. This effect increases with the timing, duration, and intensity of a bus line’s electrification.