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DACA 的不确定前路:政策威胁如何重塑受益人的经济与社会收益

DACA's Uncertain Path: How Policy Threats Reshape Economic and Social Gains for Recipients
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes、Chunbei Wang

中文摘要

自2012年以来,DACA 为儿童时期被带入美国的移民提供了免予遣返的保护与工作许可。本研究考察法律与政治上的不确定性——由特朗普政府2017年的撤销宣布所引发——如何重塑了受益人的经济与社会结果。利用双重差分和事件研究方法,我们发现,在不确定性加剧的情况下,就业与收入的早期收益急剧流失。相比之下,其他边际上的反应——包括医疗保险覆盖、就学和州内流动性——表现出更强的韧性,在某些情况下甚至随时间推移而增强。庇护州和低执法强度州等支持性环境减轻了劳动力市场的损失,并维持了对非劳动力结果的投入。这些发现凸显了政策不确定性如何在侵蚀劳动力市场收益的同时,促使行为转向保护性和着眼更长期的投资。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Since 2012, DACA has provided deportation relief and work authorization to immigrants brought to the United States as children. This study examines how legal and political uncertainty—triggered by the Trump administration's 2017 rescission announcement—reshaped recipients' economic and social outcomes. Using difference‐in‐differences and event‐study methods, we show that early gains in employment and earnings eroded sharply under heightened uncertainty. In contrast, responses along other margins—including health insurance coverage, schooling, and in‐state mobility—proved more resilient and in some cases strengthened over time. Supportive environments, such as sanctuary and low‐enforcement states, attenuate labor market losses and sustain investments in nonlabor outcomes. These findings highlight how policy uncertainty can erode labor market gains while shifting behavior toward protective and longer‐horizon investments.
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