The impact of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes
中文摘要
本文考察向无证移民发放驾驶执照对致命车祸的影响。利用来自死亡与伤害报告系统工具(Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool)的县级事故数据,我借助各州采用驾驶执照改革时点的准随机性来识别驾驶执照改革的因果效应。研究结果表明,向无证移民发放驾驶执照使致命车祸总量增加近5%,相当于一个县每年多出0.46起致命车祸。该效应在无证移民人口较多的州更强。通过考察政策影响可能发生的机制,我表明,无证移民一旦获得驾驶执照,可能更倾向于从事危险驾驶行为。多项稳健性检验与安慰剂检验均支持我的主要发现。
Abstract
Abstract This paper examines the effect of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes. Using county‐level crash data from the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, I leverage the quasi‐randomness of the timing of the driver's license reforms adoption across states to identify the causal effect of driver's license reforms. My findings show that granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses increases overall fatal crashes by nearly 5%, equivalent to 0.46 more fatal crashes in a county per year. The effect is stronger in states with a higher population of undocumented immigrants. By investigating the mechanism through which the policy impact is likely to occur, I show that undocumented immigrants may be more likely to engage in risky driving behavior once they obtain driver's licenses. Several robustness checks and placebo tests support my main findings.