Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Benjamin Hansen、Kendall A. Houghton、Keaton S. Miller、Caroline E. Weber
中文摘要
我们研究了当华盛顿州取消由大麻制造商缴纳的25%总收入税、同时将零售消费税从25%上调至37%时,价格如何作出反应。标准理论表明,这一变化本应提高制造商、零售商和消费者的福利;然而,我们的分析显示,这次改革出人意料地将利益转移给了制造商,而以零售商和消费者的利益为代价——改革后他们面临更高的含税价格。我们假设这一结果是由锚定效应和损失厌恶等行为因素所驱动的。我们的发现为日益增多的证据提供了补充,即税制改革可能以标准经济模型无法预测的方式影响市场结果,为考虑类似改革的政策制定者提供了警示。
Abstract
Abstract We study how prices respond when a 25% gross receipts tax remitted by cannabis manufacturers was eliminated in Washington state and the retail excise tax was simultaneously increased from 25% to 37%. Standard theory suggests that this change should have increased welfare for manufacturers, retailers, and consumers; instead, our analysis shows that the reform unexpectedly shifted benefits toward manufacturers at the expense of retailers and consumers, who faced higher tax‐inclusive prices post‐reform. We hypothesize that this outcome was driven by behavioral factors such as anchoring and loss aversion. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence that tax reforms can affect market outcomes in ways not predicted by standard economic models, offering a cautionary lesson for policymakers considering similar reforms.