武器供给冲击、暴力与迁移
Weapon supply shocks, violence, and migration
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Julio Acuna", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我利用世界武器供给冲击来识别暴力作为美国移民边境危机驱动因素的因果效应。主要发现是，武器供给冲击会增加暴力，而暴力会增加移民。暴力冲击后移民并非单调变化，这意味着移民时点发生变化，但其在十六个季度内的净影响为中性。关键的是，儿童和无人陪伴儿童对暴力的反应最不迅速。
Abstract
I use shocks to the world supply of weapons to identify the causal effect of violence as a driver of the U.S. migrant border crisis. The main finding is that weapon supply shocks increase violence, and violence increases migration. Migration is not monotonic after violence shocks, implying changes in migration timing that have neutral impacts over sixteen quarters. Critically, children and unaccompanied children react the least rapidly to violence.