Melitz meets Lewis: The impacts of roads on structural transformation and businesses
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Joseph P. Kaboski、Will Jianyu Lu、Wei Qian、Lixia Ren
中文摘要
本文从实证与理论两方面考察道路对结构转型与企业构成的影响。在实证上,我们发现印度和中国的大型高速公路计划在结构转型较弱的地区导致企业数量下降,而在结构转型较强的地区导致企业数量上升。我们构建了一个企业进入内生的区域贸易两部门模型,该模型凸显了两种相互对立的力量。在其他条件不变的情况下,非农部门更低的贸易成本会导致企业数量减少,但更廉价的农产品进口将劳动力从本地农业生产中释放出来,从而导致企业数量增加。我们表明,模型模拟的结果能够合理地复现实证结果,而中国更快的农业生产率增长则使两国结果彼此分化。
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of roads on structural transformation and business composition both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, we find that major highway programs in India and China led to declines in the number of businesses where structural transformation is weak, and increases where it is strong. We develop a two-sector model of regional trade with endogenous firm entry that highlights two opposing forces. Ceteris paribus , lower trade costs in non-agriculture lead to fewer firms, but cheaper agricultural imports release labor from local agricultural production, leading to more firms. We show that the model-simulated outcomes reasonably replicate the empirical results, and that more rapid agricultural productivity growth in China differentiates the two countries.