Multinational network restructuring, geopolitical exposure, and home country effects – Evidence for European MNEs
中文摘要
对全球化放缓的分析主要基于贸易和总投资的视角。基于一个涵盖欧洲跨国企业全球附属公司网络的丰富微观数据集,我们构建了一种“事件段”(episode)方法,以(i)分析2010年至2019年间海外网络重构的程度与方向,并(ii)估计其对母国经济活动的影响。我们发现,有证据表明在这十年的后半期,收缩事件段大幅增多,而扩张事件段显著减少。无论是收缩还是扩张事件段,都日益伴随着向地缘政治立场相近国家的重新布局(友岸外包)以及地理范围的收缩(近岸外包)。对于海外收缩的网络,我们未发现母国经济活动出现任何系统性增加,无论在网络广延边际还是集约边际上均是如此。相比之下,海外扩张事件段则与母公司活动增加以及国内附属公司数量上升相关。
Abstract
The slowdown in globalization has been analyzed primarily from the viewpoint of trade and aggregate investment. Based on a rich micro-level dataset of worldwide affiliate networks of European MNEs, we define an episode approach to (i) analyze the extent and direction of foreign network restructuring between 2010 and 2019, and (ii) estimate its effects on home-country activity. We find evidence of a strong rise in contraction episodes and a substantial fall in expansion episodes in the second half of this decade. Both contraction and expansion episodes have increasingly gone hand in hand with a reorientation towards geopolitically aligned countries (friendshoring) and a reduced geographic scope (nearshoring). We do not find any systematic increase in home-country activity for networks that contract abroad, neither along the extensive nor the intensive network margin. By contrast, foreign expansion episodes are associated with increased parent activity and a rise in the number of domestic affiliates.