Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Xiao Chen、Hanwei Huang、Jiandong Ju、Ruoyan Sun、Jialiang Zhang
中文摘要
我们在一个具有内生流动性的一般均衡模型中分析传染病, 其中前瞻性主体在跨区域流动决策中权衡疾病风险与经济机会。这会产生针对医疗与流行率区域差异的 "自我遏制" 与 "自我修复" 流动性反应。将该模型应用于美国 COVID-19 数据, 我们发现, 跨州流动限制通过减少跨区域接触抑制了感染, 但通过阻碍人口流向康复结果更好的地区而增加了死亡与产出损失。相对于流动性外生的模型, 我们的框架预测, 在未预期的大流行冲击之后, 感染更少、死亡率更低、经济产出更高。
Abstract
We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock.