欧元区的财政政策与通货膨胀

中文摘要

我们研究欧元区财政政策与通胀动态之间的关系，重点关注疫情后的通胀飙升。采用通过符号约束识别的结构向量自回归，我们分离出各类需求侧和供给侧冲击（包括财政政策）对通胀的影响。第一，尽管正向需求冲击和不利供给冲击都促成了通胀飙升，但需求冲击相对更为重要。第二，财政刺激发挥了实质性且逐步增强的作用，尤其是在影响基于国内的通胀指标方面。最后，尽管财政刺激的通胀效应存在跨国异质性，财政冲击在欧元区内很大程度上是同步的。

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation dynamics in the Euro Area, with a focus on the post-pandemic inflation surge. Using a structural vector autoregression identified via sign restrictions, we disentangle the effects of various demand- and supply-side shocks, including fiscal policy, on inflation. First, while both positive demand and adverse supply shocks contributed to the inflation surge, demand shocks were relatively more important. Second, fiscal stimulus played a substantial and progressively increasing role, particularly in influencing domestic-based measures of inflation. Finally, despite cross-country heterogeneity in the inflationary effects of fiscal stimulus, fiscal shocks were largely synchronized across the Euro Area.