When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labor markets
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · André Kurmann、Étienne Lalé、Julien Martin
中文摘要
我们首次提供了关于2025年加拿大访美访问量下降25%所带来的短期劳动力市场后果的系统性证据。我们将衡量加拿大访客在邮政编码×行业层面分布的智能手机人流数据与实时企业层面就业记录相结合。利用加拿大访客暴露度的高度异质性，我们发现，暴露度排名前1%的地方—行业市场中，小型企业的就业相对于暴露度较低者下降了约6%。我们的估计意味着13,900至42,100个工作岗位流失，且集中在少数几个地区。
Abstract
We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.