Why railways fail: Colonial railways and economic development in Habsburg Bosnia–Herzegovina
中文摘要
铁路总是繁荣的先兆吗？我们考察了哈布斯堡殖民统治下波斯尼亚—黑塞哥维那铁路的经济效应。我们基于人口普查记录构建的新数据集，以一致口径追踪了哈布斯堡统治下波斯尼亚4500多个定居点在1885年、1895年和1910年的非农人口占比。我们采用无关紧要单元法（inconsequential units approach），以最低成本路径作为工具变量，估计铁路通达对职业变迁的影响。在直接接入帝国铁路并面临竞争的定居点，随着工匠重返农业，非农活动减少。相比之下，新铁路网络主要通过吸引工厂和外国劳动力，暂时加快了非农活动的发展。在人力资本较高且执法力度较强的定居点，铁路通达带来了更持久的非农就业增长。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，殖民铁路并非在所有地方都促进了经济发展：虽然铁路通达重塑了当地的职业结构，但持久的积极效应取决于当地的发展前提条件。
Abstract
Are railways always a harbinger of prosperity? We examine the economic effects of railways in Bosnia–Herzegovina under Habsburg colonial rule. Our novel dataset consistently tracks the non-agricultural population share of over 4500 settlements in Habsburg Bosnia in 1885, 1895, and 1910, based on census records. Applying the inconsequential units approach, with least-cost paths as our instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of railway access on occupational change. In settlements directly connected to imperial railways and competition, non-agricultural activity declined as craftsmen returned to agriculture. By contrast, the new railway network temporarily accelerated non-agricultural activity, primarily by attracting factories and foreign labor. Railway access generated more sustained non-agricultural employment growth in settlements with higher human capital and stronger law enforcement. Overall, our findings suggest that colonial railways did not uniformly promote economic development: while railway access reshaped local occupational structures, lasting positive effects depended on local development preconditions.