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干旱与经济活动:大坝与地下水能否缓解其影响?

Droughts and Economic Activity: Do Dams and Groundwater Mediate the Impact?
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Sheila M. Olmstead、Hilary A. Sigman

中文摘要

本研究考察干旱对经济活动的影响,并以夜间灯光作为经济活动的代理指标。我们采用两个不同的干旱严重程度指数——一个来自遥感数据,一个来自地面气象观测数据——提供了关于干旱(有别于气温与降水)经济效应的最早一批全球估计。经济影响取决于干旱的严重程度,中度及以上干旱会使灯光亮度降低约2%。以可获取地下水形式存在的水储存能够缓解干旱影响。大坝可减弱除最极端干旱之外所有干旱的影响。对于中度及以上干旱,其负面影响可被大坝的存在完全抵消,除非其中部分大坝为水力发电大坝。上游大坝似乎不会对下游的干旱抵御能力产生有害的溢出效应。在允许灌溉发挥单独中介影响的设定下,结果依然稳健,并且表明大坝与地下水的韧性收益并不局限于农业。

Abstract

This study examines the effects of droughts on economic activity, proxied by nighttime lights. Using two different indices of drought severity, one remotely sensed and one from ground-sensed meteorological data, we provide some of the first global estimates of the economic effects of drought, as opposed to temperature and precipitation. Economic impacts depend on drought severity, with moderate-or-worse droughts reducing luminosity by about 2%. Water storage in the form of accessible groundwater mitigates drought impacts. Dams moderate the effects of all but the most extreme droughts. For moderate or worse droughts, negative effects are fully offset by the presence of dams, unless some dams are hydroelectric. Upstream dams do not appear to create harmful spillovers for drought resilience downstream. Results are robust to allowing separate mediating impacts from irrigation and suggest that the resilience benefits of dams and groundwater extend beyond agriculture.
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