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电动汽车税收抵免的城市均衡效应

The Urban Equilibrium Effects of Electric Vehicle Tax Credits
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Weihua Zhao、William D. Larson、Becka Brolinson

中文摘要

本研究扩展了单中心城市模型,将家庭内生的汽车燃料选择与住宅能源消费纳入其中。电动汽车(EV)税收抵免通过通勤降低了直接能源消费与排放,但也引发了重要的城市一般均衡效应,包括城市蔓延。这通过更大的住房、更长的通勤以及计价物商品消费的增加,形成了可观的排放反弹效应。尽管如此,除非电力生产严重偏向煤炭,电动汽车税收抵免仍能提升福利,家庭总能源消费与碳排放均大幅下降。

Abstract

This study extends the monocentric city model to incorporate endogenous household automobile fuel choice and dwelling energy consumption. Electric vehicle (EV) tax credits lower direct energy consumption and emissions via commuting but also cause important urban general equilibrium effects, including sprawl. This creates a substantial emissions rebound effect via larger homes, longer commutes, and greater consumption of the numeraire good. Nevertheless, EV tax credits are welfare enhancing unless electricity production is heavily tilted toward coal, with total household energy consumption and carbon emissions falling substantially.
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