Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Oludamilare Aboaba、Aaron J. Chalfin、Michael LaForest、Lucie Parker、Patrick T. Sharkey
中文摘要
犯罪能否以低成本被威慑?我们报告一项随机实验的结果。该实验评估了一项信息传递干预,旨在威慑处于假释监督之下、曾有暴力重罪定罪或因枪支被逮捕记录的个体实施犯罪。该干预包括一次集体会议:高风险假释人员在会上被告知再犯罪将面临的制裁,同时获得支持其重新融入社区的社区资源。该项目并未带来未来被捕次数的明显减少,也未产生社区溢出效应,但确实使假释违规行为减少了15%。本文讨论了潜在的机制以及对类似项目的启示。
Abstract
ABSTRACT Can crime be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention designed to deter offending among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high‐risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re‐integration into the community. The program did not lead to a notable reduction in future arrests or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.