重新思考资源丰富型经济体的财政规则
Rethinking fiscal rules in resource-rich economies
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Salomon Garcia-Villegas", "affiliation": ["CUNEF Universidad"]}, {"name": "Rodrigo Heresi", "affiliation": ["Banco Central de Chile"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究了依赖大宗商品的经济体中，简单且可实施的财政政策规则的福利与宏观经济含义。在此类经济体中，产出、出口和政府收入的很大一部分取决于外生且波动的大宗商品价格。基于一个针对智利经济估计的多部门新凯恩斯模型，我们发现，使福利最大化的财政政策对税收收入周期采取积极的逆周期反应，而对大宗商品收入周期采取非周期性反应。与基准的非周期性政策相比，优化后的规则降低了宏观经济（GDP 增长）波动，同时为平均家庭带来相当于终身消费 0.6% 的福利收益（对现挣现花型（hand-to-mouth）家庭为 1.2%）。政府消费、尤其是公共投资，对稳定 GDP 特别有帮助，而定向社会转移支付对于平滑受金融约束家庭的消费至关重要。实施优化后的规则需要政府支出和公共债务承受适度的额外波动（财政积极主义）。
Abstract
We study the welfare and macroeconomic implications of simple and implementable fiscal policy rules in commodity-dependent economies, where a large share of output, exports, and government revenues depends on exogenous and volatile commodity prices. Using a multi-sector New Keynesian model estimated for the Chilean economy, we find that the welfare-maximizing fiscal policy involves an actively countercyclical response to the tax revenue cycle and an acyclical response to the commodity revenue cycle. Compared to a benchmark acyclical policy, the optimized rule reduces macroeconomic (GDP growth) volatility while delivering welfare gains of 0.6% of lifetime consumption for the average household (1.2% for hand-to-mouth households). Government consumption and especially public investment are particularly helpful in stabilizing GDP, while targeted social transfers are essential to smooth the consumption of financially constrained households. Implementing the optimized rule requires moderate additional volatility (fiscal activism) in government spending and public debt.