中文摘要
我们研究了简单且可实施的财政政策规则对大宗商品依赖型经济体的福利与宏观经济影响；在这类经济体中，产出、出口和政府收入有很大一部分取决于外生且波动剧烈的大宗商品价格。利用一个针对智利经济估计的多部门新凯恩斯模型，我们发现，使福利最大化的财政政策应对税收收入周期采取积极的逆周期响应，而对大宗商品收入周期采取非周期性响应。与非周期性政策这一基准相比，优化后的规则在降低宏观经济（GDP增长）波动性的同时，为平均家庭带来相当于终身消费0.6%的福利收益（对手停口停家庭为1.2%）。政府消费、尤其是公共投资，对稳定GDP特别有帮助，而定向社会转移支付对于平滑受财务约束家庭的消费至关重要。实施优化后的规则需要政府支出和公共债务承受适度的额外波动（即财政积极调控）。
Abstract
We study the welfare and macroeconomic implications of simple and implementable fiscal policy rules in commodity-dependent economies, where a large share of output, exports, and government revenues depends on exogenous and volatile commodity prices. Using a multi-sector New Keynesian model estimated for the Chilean economy, we find that the welfare-maximizing fiscal policy involves an actively countercyclical response to the tax revenue cycle and an acyclical response to the commodity revenue cycle. Compared to a benchmark acyclical policy, the optimized rule reduces macroeconomic (GDP growth) volatility while delivering welfare gains of 0.6% of lifetime consumption for the average household (1.2% for hand-to-mouth households). Government consumption and especially public investment are particularly helpful in stabilizing GDP, while targeted social transfers are essential to smooth the consumption of financially constrained households. Implementing the optimized rule requires moderate additional volatility (fiscal activism) in government spending and public debt.