中文摘要
本文利用欧洲国家的面板数据,考察扩大性侵犯罪的法律定义如何影响生育率与性行为。我发现,转向默示同意型立法会使生育率相对均值下降约4%。这一效应由伴侣形成减少与堕胎率上升所驱动。支持性证据与以下行为渠道一致:改革后风险厌恶程度更高的个体退出约会与择偶市场,使仍处于活跃状态的个体构成发生改变,向预防性更弱的群体偏移。与这一构成变化相一致,避孕措施的使用在较年轻女性中上升,但在较年长年龄组中下降;同时,年轻男性中安全套的使用下降。最后,对瑞典采用同意型立法后上诉法院判决的分析显示,一致有罪判决减少,表明评估默示同意存在困难。这些结果与一个简单框架相一致:在该框架中,约会与择偶市场中风险感知与预防性行为的异质性(包括部分个体参与度下降)有助于解释改革后观察到的生育率下降。
Abstract
This paper examines how expanding the legal definition of sexual assault affects fertility and sexual behavior, using a panel of European countries. I find that switching to tacit consent-based legislation reduces fertility by about 4% relative to the mean. This effect is driven by a decrease in couple formation and an increase in abortion rates. Supporting evidence is consistent with a behavioral channel in which more risk-averse individuals withdraw from dating and partner markets following the reform, altering the composition of those who remain active toward a pool that is less precautionary. Consistent with this compositional shift, contraceptive use rises among younger women but declines among older age groups, while condom use falls among young men. Finally, an analysis of appeals court verdicts in Sweden following the adoption of consent-based legislation shows a decline in unanimous guilty verdicts, indicating challenges in assessing tacit consent. These results are consistent with a simple framework in which heterogeneity in risk perceptions and precautionary behavior in dating and partner markets, including reduced participation by some individuals, helps explain the observed decline in fertility following the reform.