When fewer children mean shorter lives: Fertility policy and elderly well-being in China
中文摘要
我们研究生育政策对老龄化和存活的长期后果，利用中国20世纪70年代"晚、稀、少"运动在各省交错推行的特征。我们将暴露程度的变异与中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查（1998—2021年）相链接，发现受生育限制的队列经历了显著更高的晚年死亡率，平均高出10%以上，且认知和心理状况更差。这些效应的产生，是因为同胞规模更小、生育推迟以及生育间隔拉大，既减少了代际照护的供给，也改变了其时机。尽管随后引入的长期护理保险（LTCI）缓解了部分不利影响，但这些效应是由实物给付所驱动的，而以现金为基础的长期护理保险几乎没有起到抵消作用，凸显了正式制度替代亲属支持的局限性。我们的发现揭示了生育控制中根本性的代际权衡，并凸显了重塑家庭结构的政策所带来的持久人口代价。
Abstract
We study the long-run consequences of fertility policy for aging and survival, exploiting the staggered provincial rollout of China’s 1970s Later, Longer, Fewer campaign. Linking variation in exposure to the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (1998–2021), we find that cohorts subject to fertility restrictions experienced significantly higher late-life mortality, over 10% on average, and worse cognitive and psychological outcomes. These effects arise because smaller sibships, delayed childbearing, and wider spacing reduced both the supply and timing of intergenerational care. While the subsequent introduction of LTCI mitigated some adverse impacts, the effects were driven by in-kind benefits, whereas cash-based LTCI provided little offset, underscoring the limits of formal substitution for kin-based support. Our findings reveal a fundamental intergenerational trade-off in fertility control and highlight the enduring demographic costs of policies that reshape family structure.