中文摘要
一种货币如何实现更广泛的国际使用?我们通过阿根廷一项独特的政策实验,研究人民币(RMB)的国际化。2023年,在严重的美元短缺背景下,阿根廷扩大了与中国人民银行之间的货币互换额度。在随后几个月内,自中国进口中以人民币计价的份额迅速飙升至近50%——取代了此前几乎占全部计价的美元。2023年底总统选举之后,随着宏观经济政策转变、美元短缺缓解,人民币计价份额随之下降。我们利用关于进口、银企贷款关系和银行资产负债表的丰富企业层面数据,探究这一总体模式背后的机制。结果表明,银行发挥了关键作用,这与美元短缺的叙事相符。首先,与美元贷款有限的银行存在既有关系的企业,更可能转向人民币。其次,从一家中国国有银行借款的企业使用人民币的可能性显著更高。我们还记录了企业层面的溢出效应:对自中国进口使用人民币,会提高对自其他国家进口使用人民币的可能性。最后,我们观察到对贸易量的影响:转向人民币的企业的总进口有所增加。
Abstract
How can a currency achieve more widespread international use? We study the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) through the lens of a unique policy experiment in Argentina. In 2023, amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded a currency swap line with the People’s Bank of China. Within the next few months, the share of imports from China invoiced in RMB surged rapidly to nearly 50% – displacing the US dollar, which had previously accounted for virtually all invoicing. Following the presidential election of late 2023, as macroeconomic policies changed and the dollar shortage eased, invoicing in RMB declined. We explore the mechanisms behind this aggregate pattern, using rich firm-level data on imports, bank-firm loan relationships, and bank balance sheets. Our results indicate that banks played a key role, in line with the dollar shortage narrative. First, firms with pre-existing relationships to banks with limited US dollar loans were more likely to switch to RMB. Second, firms borrowing from a Chinese state-owned bank were significantly more likely to use RMB. We also document firm-level spillovers, with RMB use for imports from China increasing the likelihood of RMB use for imports from other countries. Finally, we observe an effect on trade volumes. Firms switching to RMB saw increased total imports