阵营博弈：量化脱钩

中文摘要

我们采用数据驱动的方法测度2015–2023年间的贸易脱钩。根据各国与美国、中国之间由数据推断的贸易成本的变化，我们将国家划分为三组：转向美国阵营的国家、转向中国阵营的国家，以及阵营归属未发生变化的国家。我们发现，尽管跨阵营贸易成本上升，但与此同时阵营内部贸易成本下降，平均贸易成本小幅下降，这与全球贸易的韧性相一致。我们运用定量模型计算了贸易成本这一重新配置对实际收入的影响。模型模拟表明，世界的中位数国家以及每个阵营内中位数国家的实际收入上升了0.4%–0.6%。最后，我们发现存在一定程度的阵营错配：中位数国家若转换阵营，其境况会更好。这些结果表明，贸易脱钩可能并非遵循贸易驱动的经济利益。

Abstract

We adopt a data-driven approach to measure trade decoupling over 2015-2023. Countries are classified into three groups according to changes in their data-inferred trade costs with the US and China: those shifting toward the US bloc, those shifting toward the China bloc, and those with no change in alignment. We document that while cross-bloc trade costs rose, they were accompanied by falling within-bloc trade costs, with average trade costs falling marginally in line with global trade resilience. We use a quantitative model to compute the real income effects of this reconfiguration of trade costs. Model simulations suggest that real income in the median country in the world, and the median country within each bloc, rose by 0.4-0.6%. Finally, we find a modest amount of bloc misalignment: the median country would be better off switching blocs. These results suggest that trade decoupling may not follow trade-driven economic interests.