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电力、农业生产率与森林砍伐:来自巴西的证据

Electricity, Agricultural Productivity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Dimitri Szerman、Juliano J. Assunção、Molly Lipscomb、Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

中文摘要

我们考察电力获取条件改善对森林砍伐的影响,这一影响是通过其为农场从放牧牛群转向耕地所创造的激励而实现的。我们构建了一个模型,阐明在何种条件下农业生产率的提高会增强集约化而非扩张土地利用的激励,并利用来自五轮巴西农业普查的县级数据以及基于卫星的土地利用度量检验该模型的预测。我们估计了1960年至2000年间巴西农村电气化的影响及其带来的农业生产率提升。我们表明,适宜水电开发的地区经历了作物产量的改善,这激励受到信贷约束的农民放弃土地密集型的放牧牛群,转向种植业。结果是,农业用地减少,更多原生植被得到保护,且这些效应在25年后的普查数据与卫星数据中依然持续存在。

Abstract

We examine the impact of improved access to electricity on deforestation through the incentives it creates for farms to switch from cattle grazing to croplands. We generate a model that elucidates the conditions under which increases in agricultural productivity can increase the incentives to intensify rather than expand land use and examine the predictions of that model using county-level data from five waves of the Brazilian Census of Agriculture and satellite-based measures of land use. We estimate the impact of rural electrification in Brazil from 1960 to 2000 and the resulting increases in agricultural productivity. We show that locations suitable for hydropower generation experienced improvements in crop yields incentivizing credit-constrained farmers to shift away from land-intensive cattle grazing and into cropping. As a result, agricultural land use declined, more native vegetation was protected, and these effects persist 25 years later in both census and satellite data.
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