镇压与威权巩固

We develop a dynamic model of autocracy in which repression helps quell acute threats, increasing an autocrat’s survival probability or deterring challenges altogether, but at the expense of policies that reduce popular discontent and future opposition mobilization. Our main contribution is characterizing a unique stationary Markov Perfect equilibrium, which takes one of three forms: deterrence, where the autocrat is never challenged; instability, where challenges occur every period; or a deterrence/contention mixed-strategy equilibrium with periods of deterrence and periods with challenges. The mixed-strategy equilibrium arises because the opposition is easier to deter today when they expect opportunities to challenge in the future. We then examine indirect foreign interference–such as sanctions or withholding aid–aimed at protecting the opposition or promoting democratization. Even under ideal conditions, such interference cannot achieve both goals simultaneously.