What do changes in state NAEP scores imply for birth cohorts’ later life outcomes?
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Elena Doty、Thomas J. Kane、Tyler Patterson、Douglas O. Staiger
中文摘要
自1990年以来，全国教育进展评估（NAEP）一直是追踪各州教育改革进展的主要基准。对数学和阅读成绩的关注源于横截面上考试成绩与成年后结果（如收入和大学毕业率）之间的关系。但NAEP成绩的变化能否预测未来劳动者长期经济和社会结果的变化——还是反映了与收入无关的其他因素，例如应试教学？我们通过将按出生年份和出生州划分的长期结果与NAEP成绩相联系来展开研究。我们发现，在NAEP数学成绩大幅提高的州，较近的出生队列相比增幅较小州的出生队列，享有更高的收入、更高的受教育程度，以及青少年生育率、监禁率和逮捕率的下降。事实上，NAEP成绩变化与队列收入之间的关系规模约为既往研究所观察到的横截面关系的三分之二：8年级数学成绩每提高一个标准差，收入提高6%至8%。结果对学生人口统计特征、劳动力市场状况或儿童健康指标（如低出生体重）的控制不敏感。
Abstract
Abstract Since 1990, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has been the primary benchmark for tracking the progress of state education reform. The focus on math and reading achievement is motivated by the cross‐sectional relationship between test scores and adult outcomes, such as earnings and college completion. But do changes in NAEP scores predict changes in long‐term economic and social outcomes for future earners—or do they reflect other factors unrelated to earnings such as teaching to the test? We investigate by linking long‐term outcomes by year and state of birth to NAEP scores. We find that more recent birth cohorts in states with large increases in NAEP math achievement enjoyed higher incomes, improved educational attainment, and declines in teen motherhood, incarceration, and arrest rates compared to those in states with smaller increases. In fact, the relationship between changes in NAEP achievement and cohort earnings is about two thirds the size of the cross‐sectional relationship observed in prior research: a 6% to 8% rise in earnings per standard deviation rise in 8th grade math. The results are not sensitive to controls for student demographics, labor market conditions, or measures of children's health (such as low birthweight).