Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · J. David Brown、Misty L. Heggeness
中文摘要
人口普查或调查中不同人口群体的覆盖差异会降低所得统计数据的准确性和代表性。研究人员传统上使用社区层面的指标来研究应答行为和覆盖情况，这可能掩盖小规模人口群体的模式。我们利用住户层面的公民身份和移民身份来说明这一点。我们在一项随机对照试验（RCT）调查中，使用每个地址的行政记录构建住户层面特征；该调查衡量了在十年一次的人口普查问卷中加入公民身份问题所产生的影响。我们的结果显示，不含公民身份问题的问卷自应答率从仅由美国出生非西班牙裔白人组成的住户的70.4%，到至少有一名可能无证人员的住户的27.5%不等（相差42.9个百分点）。加入公民身份问题使这一差距扩大2.4个百分点，且在统计上显著。与全部由美国出生非西班牙裔白人组成的住户相比，至少有一名可能无证成员的住户的住户名册漏报率在不含公民身份问题时高6.0倍，在含该问题时高10.4倍。这些模式有助于解释为什么基于行政记录的人口数据包含的非公民多于基于调查的官方统计数据。
Abstract
Differential coverage across demographic groups in a census or survey can reduce the accuracy and representativeness of the resulting statistics. Researchers traditionally have used community-level measures to study response behavior and coverage, which can obscure patterns for small population groups. We illustrate this using household-level citizenship and immigration status. We construct household-level characteristics using administrative records for each address in a randomized control trial (RCT) survey that measured the effects of including a citizenship question on a decennial census questionnaire. Our results show that the self-response rate to the questionnaire without the citizenship question ranges from 70.4% in households with only U.S.-born non-Hispanic Whites to 27.5% in those with at least one likely undocumented person (a 42.9 percentage point gap). Including the citizenship question widens the gap by a statistically significant 2.4 percentage points. Compared to households with all U.S.-born non-Hispanic Whites, the household roster omission rate in households with at least one likely undocumented member is 6.0 times higher without the citizenship question and 10.4 times higher with the question. These patterns help explain why administrative record-based population data include more non-citizens than survey-based official statistics.