中文摘要
近几十年来,许多国家的劳动力市场以结构性的供给侧改革为主要特征。在2000年代推行鹰派改革之后,德国近期出现了鸽派转向。针对失业者的基本收入保障待遇变得更加优厚,并同时注重资质培养与发展。此前,德国曾临时暂停制裁,由此形成了一次独特的政策转变。我们基于大规模行政数据和新颖的控制组方法,分析上述变化对再就业的影响。制裁暂缓使再就业减少了4%,随后的福利改革使其减少近6%——抵消了2000年代改革正面效应的一半。从改革目标来看,我们迄今尚未发现技能水平、就业稳定性或向培训的转换方面有任何改善。
Abstract
Abstract On the labor markets, recent decades were characterized by structural supply‐side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous, combined with a focus on qualification and development. Before, a temporary moratorium on sanctions had been imposed, providing a unique policy shift. We analyze the consequences for job findings, building on large administrative data and a novel control group approach. The moratorium dampened job findings by 4% and the subsequent benefit reform by almost 6%—offsetting half of the positive effect of the 2000s reform. Considering reform objectives, so far, we find no improvement in skill level, job stability, or transitions to training.