中央银行沟通与房价预期
Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · [{"name": "Carola Binder", "affiliation": ["The University of Texas at Austin"]}, {"name": "Pei Kuang", "affiliation": ["University of Macau"]}, {"name": "Li Tang", "affiliation": ["University of Reading"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们利用一系列在线调查，研究美国消费者的房价预期如何对利率预期作出反应。关于利率的沟通对平均房价预期影响甚微，因为家庭对利率与房价之间关系持有异质性信念。当关于利率的沟通与对抵押贷款利率渠道的解释相结合时，其对房价预期的影响要大得多。我们还表明，在基于文本的沟通所产生的影响之外，音频和视觉沟通对预期具有额外的影响。消费者的个人经历似乎塑造了他们关于住房市场的心理模型，以及其房价预期对利率预期的反应程度。
Abstract
Abstract We use a series of online surveys to study how US consumers’ house price expectations respond to interest rate expectations. Communication about interest rates has little effect on average house price expectations, since households have heterogeneous beliefs about the relationship between interest rates and house prices. When coupled with an explanation of the mortgage rate channel, communication about interest rates has much larger effects on house price expectations. We also show that audio and visual communication have additional effects on expectations beyond the effects of text-based communications. Consumers’ personal experiences appear to shape their mental models of the housing market and the responsiveness of their house price expectations to interest rate expectations.