Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Geir B. Asheim、Rintaro Yamaguchi
中文摘要
我们采用脆弱性方法将二氧化碳排放纳入综合国民核算，以揭示各国的发展是否可持续。我们的可持续性指标不仅考虑资本存量当前变化的价值以及当前全球排放的国家碳社会成本 (NSCC)，还考虑国内与全球排放的预期变化所导致的未来减排成本和未来气候损害。我们运用 RFF 社会经济预测下的温室气体影响价值估计量 (GIVE)，将理论结果应用于近期数据。我们表明，当前全球排放的 NSCC 几乎在所有地方都很重要，尽管其对可持续性的影响在脱碳前景下被未来损害的减少部分抵消。对于一些发展中国家，我们的指标为负，因为在这些国家，针对当前和未来二氧化碳排放的调整超过了其他资产净投资的价值。责任方法与脆弱性方法对可持续性得出的实证评估存在分歧。
Abstract
We use the vulnerability approach to integrate CO2 emissions in comprehensive national accounts to indicate whether countries’ development is sustainable. Our sustainability indicator accounts for future mitigation costs and future climate damage of expected changes in national and global emissions, in addition to the value of current changes in capital stocks and the national social cost of carbon (NSCC) of current global emissions. We apply our theoretical results to recent data using the greenhouse gas impact value estimator (GIVE) under the RFF socioeconomic projections. We show that the NSCC of current global emissions is important almost everywhere, although its effect on sustainability is partly offset by future damage decrease under decarbonization prospects. Our indicator is negative for some developing countries where the adjustment for current and future CO2 emissions exceeds the value of net investments in other assets. The responsibility and vulnerability approaches produce divergent empirical assessments of sustainability.