Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2025 · Toshio Ferrazares、Joseph J. Sabia、D. Mark Anderson
中文摘要
枪支回购计划（GBPs）利用公共资金购买平民私人拥有的枪支，旨在减少枪支暴力。然而，人们对这类计划对涉枪犯罪或死亡的影响几乎一无所知。利用全国事件报告系统（National Incident Based Reporting System）的数据，我们没有发现枪支回购计划减少涉枪犯罪的证据。鉴于我们估计得到的零效应结果，在95%的置信度下，我们可以排除回购后一年内涉枪犯罪降幅超过1.2%的可能性。利用全国生命统计系统（National Vital Statistics System）的数据，我们同样没有发现枪支回购计划减少涉枪自杀或涉枪凶杀的证据。这些结果使人们对现有形式的城市枪支回购计划的有效性产生了质疑。
Abstract
Abstract Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately‐owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm‐related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm‐related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.