解析深度一体化:英国脱欧投票的本地劳动力市场效应

Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · [{"name": "Beata Smarzynska Javorcik", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "European Bank for Reconstruction and Development", "University of Oxford"]}, {"name": "Benjamin Kett", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Katherine Stapleton", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Layla O’Kane", "affiliation": ["Opportunity International", "Burning Rock Biotech (China)"]}]

中文摘要

摘要　本文利用英国近乎全部在线发布招聘广告的高频数据，研究 2015 年 1 月至 2019 年 12 月期间英国脱欧公投所引发的贸易壁垒威胁对劳动力市场的影响。我们构建了在英国无协议脱欧情景下，地方劳动力市场对货物和服务出口潜在贸易壁垒的暴露程度指标。我们发现，在公投之后的时期，对向欧盟出口专业服务的潜在壁垒暴露程度更高的地区，其在线招聘广告出现了显著的相对下降，尤其体现在高技能岗位以及专业和管理类职业上。这一效应有别于汇率贬值、未来移民政策不确定性以及未来货物贸易壁垒威胁所带来的影响。

Abstract

Abstract This paper uses high-frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the threat of trade barriers caused by the Brexit referendum on labour markets between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to prospective trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports to the EU experienced a substantial relative decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs and professional and managerial occupations. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.