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挖掘地震的影响:经济与社会后果综述

Unearthing the impact of earthquakes: A review of economic and social consequences
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2024 · Cevat Giray Aksoy、Maxim Chupilkin、Zsóka Kóczán、Alexander Plekhanov

中文摘要

本文旨在全面概述地震的社会经济影响。我们首先进行详尽的文献综述。随后,我们评估针对重大地震所采取的政策措施,并借鉴现有研究,提炼可供政策制定者用来有效应对此类灾害后续风险的洞见与建议。除综述文献和分析政策干预外,我们还深入考察了地震的经济影响。我们的分析利用了30多个国家约80次重大地震的数据。研究结果表明,尽管重大地震对人均GDP的总体影响通常较小,但其对财政收支的冲击可能相当大,不过这在各经济体之间存在显著差异。对外贸易差额趋于恶化,出口大幅下降,而进口所受影响则不明确。

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to offer a comprehensive overview of the socioeconomic effects of earthquakes. We begin with a thorough literature review. Following this, we assess policy measures taken in response to major earthquakes, drawing on existing research to formulate insights and recommendations that policymakers can use to effectively navigate the risks in the aftermath of such disasters. In addition to reviewing the literature and analyzing policy interventions, we conduct an in‐depth examination of the economic repercussions of earthquakes. Our analysis utilizes data from around 80 significant earthquakes across more than 30 countries. The findings indicate that, while the overall effect of major earthquakes on GDP per capita is generally small, the impact on fiscal accounts can be substantial, although this varies significantly between economies. External trade balances tend to weaken, with a considerable decrease in exports and an ambiguous effect on imports.
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