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移民身份不确定背景下的通婚:来自DACA的证据

Intermarriage amid immigration status uncertainty: Evidence from DACA
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2024 · Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes、Chunbei Wang

中文摘要

2012年,奥巴马政府以行政命令方式推出了"童年入境暂缓行动"(DACA)计划。自那时以来,超过80万名儿童时期入境的无证移民从中受益,获得了可续期的两年暂缓遣返待遇及工作许可。2017年,特朗普政府宣布将终止DACA,该声明随即引发司法诉讼。我们考察DACA所授待遇的临时性质以及2017年后该计划命运的不确定性,可能如何影响了符合DACA条件的移民与美国公民结婚的决策——这或许是为了在政策环境日益不明朗的情况下获得永久居留权。我们采用双重差分方法,利用DACA资格标准截止线的不连续性构建类似的处理组与对照组。结果显示,在该计划陷入困境之后,符合DACA条件的移民与类似的、不符合DACA条件的无证移民相比,与美国公民结婚的可能性提高了20%。这些发现说明了加剧移民法律身份不确定性的政策变化所产生的影响,通婚便是其中一例,其可能对移民融合及后代福祉产生长期后果。

Abstract

Abstract In 2012, the Obama administration issued the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program by executive order. Since then, more than 800,000 undocumented immigrants who arrived as children have benefited from renewable 2‐year reprieves from deportation and work permits. In 2017, the Trump administration announced it would end DACA—an announcement immediately followed by court challenges. We examine how the temporary nature of DACA's granted benefits and the uncertainty regarding the program's fate after 2017 might have shaped DACA‐eligible migrants’ decision to marry a U.S. citizen—presumably to secure permanent residence amid an increasingly unclear policy environment. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach that exploits the discontinuity in DACA eligibility criteria cutoffs to construct akin treatment and control groups, we show that DACA‐eligible immigrants became 20% more likely than similar DACA‐ineligible undocumented migrants to marry U.S. citizens after the program came under siege. The findings are illustrative of the implications of policy changes that increase the uncertainty surrounding migrants’ legal status, as in the case of intermarriage with potentially long‐term consequences on migrant integration and the welfare of subsequent generations.
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