中文摘要
最低有监督驾驶时长 (MSDH) 是渐进式驾照制度 (GDL) 政策的关键组成部分。已有研究表明GDL能够减少机动车事故,但其最优设计仍远不明晰。利用新南威尔士州(澳大利亚最大的州)两次离散的MSDH调整,我们估计了不同MSDH方案的因果效应,为不同制度下的驾驶安全提供了证据。将MSDH从零提高到50小时,使无监督驾驶第一年内发生机动车事故的风险降低约23%。进一步将要求提高到120小时则没有额外的收益。
Abstract
Minimum supervised driving hours (MSDH) are a key component of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) policy. GDL has been shown to reduce motor vehicle accidents, but its optimal design is far from clear. Exploiting two discrete MSDH changes in New South Wales (the largest state in Australia), we estimate causal effects of various MSDH options, providing evidence on driver safety under different regimes. Increasing MSDH from zero to 50 h lowered the risk of a motor vehicle accident in the first year of unsupervised driving by around 23%. Further increasing the mandate to 120 h had no additional benefit.